New Commercial Space Economy
There are so many new companies popping up right now that want to do something in space. This is the next generation. For years NASA dominated space at least for manned spaceflight. NASA had the experience. They went through disasters and learned lessons which led to safer procedures. Statistically there will be a disaster. The chance of dying in space is 2.9% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents). It will probably get worse with commercial spaceflight. But both are similar from a risk perspective. NASA is a government institution which tries to fly on the cheap because congress limits budgets or commercial which limits budgets based on profit. Which system is better? Probably the government institution for safety. But only time will tell. NASA will cancel a program if it does not look safe. Commercial may take risk and launch but, even more likely, they don’t know or underestimated the risk.
I write this because of the recent Peregrine failure (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2413225-why-the-peregrine-moon-lander-was-burned-up-in-earths-atmosphere/). It is sad because so much was lost. So many science experiments that people may have worked on for years just thrown away. Before the launch I had listened to a podcast where the CEO of @Astrobotic who made Peregrine lander which was slated to be the first US lander to go back to the moon. It is part of the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program [https://www.nasa.gov/commercial-lunar-payload-services/]/ This program will take cargo to the moon in preparation for @Artemis missions. Eventually items for a moonbase. But the next CLPS mission is another lander by a company called Intuitive Machines ( @Int_Machines ). And Astrobotics has another mission coming that is important. Their Griffin lander will carry Viper which is a rover to look for water in the regolith. This is important since water is important for any moonbase. It is also important because it is desired to make rocket fuel (H and O) to make fueling for a trip to Mars easy.
A long winded intro. What I want to convey is that commercial ventures cut corners to reduce cost. I have seen it in automotive, aerospace and many other places. Cutting corners increases the risk of failure. The companies do not want failure because there is a financial loss and also a loss of confidence from their customers and shareholders. Eventually these companies will learn to not cut corners. Hopefully few people will get hurt or die in the new Space Economy.
Ron Kollman's Blog 